Home Investment How to Invest During a Market Crash: Turning Fear Into Opportunity

How to Invest During a Market Crash: Turning Fear Into Opportunity

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in stocks and other securities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Why Crashes Feel Like the End (But Never Are)

On March 16, 2020, the S&P 500 fell 12% in a single day — the worst drop since Black Monday in 1987. Cable news anchors spoke in grave tones about economic collapse. Social media was a firehose of panic. Retirement accounts lost a third of their value in just three weeks. If you were watching your portfolio that month, your brain was screaming one thing: sell everything.

Exactly one year later, the S&P 500 was up over 75% from that March bottom. Investors who listened to that screaming voice in their head — the one that said “get out now before it goes to zero” — locked in devastating losses and missed one of the fastest recoveries in stock market history. Meanwhile, those who had the stomach to buy during the chaos saw returns that most investors only dream about.

This pattern is not new. It is not unique. And it is not going to stop happening. Market crashes are a feature of capitalism, not a bug. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a decline of 20% or more roughly once every six years. Every single time, the market eventually recovered and went on to set new all-time highs. Every. Single. Time.

Yet knowing this intellectually and acting on it with real money are two entirely different things. When your portfolio is down 35% and headlines are predicting the end of the financial system as we know it, rational thinking evaporates. That is exactly why you need a plan before the crash happens — not during it, and certainly not after you have already panic-sold at the bottom.

This article is your crash investing manual. We are going to walk through the history of major market crashes and their recoveries, examine the psychological traps that cause smart people to make terrible decisions, identify what you should actually buy when markets are in freefall, and build a concrete, step-by-step playbook that you can execute when fear is at its peak. By the time you finish reading, you will understand not just what to do during a market crash, but how to prepare yourself emotionally and financially so you can turn the next crisis into the best investing opportunity of your lifetime.

A History of Market Crashes and Recoveries

Before we talk strategy, let us look at the data. Nothing calms panic like historical context, and the historical context of market crashes is overwhelmingly clear: markets crash, markets recover, and patient investors get rewarded.

The Major Crashes at a Glance

Crash Peak-to-Trough Decline Duration of Decline Time to Recovery 5-Year Return from Bottom
Black Monday (1987) -33.5% ~2 months ~2 years +96%
Dot-Com Bust (2000–2002) -49.1% ~30 months ~7 years +101%
Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009) -56.8% ~17 months ~5.5 years +178%
COVID-19 Crash (2020) -33.9% ~1 month ~5 months +107%

 

Look at that table for a moment. The worst crash on the list — the 2008 Global Financial Crisis — saw the S&P 500 lose nearly 57% of its value. If you had $100,000 invested, you were staring at roughly $43,000. That is gut-wrenching. But five years after the bottom, that $43,000 had turned into approximately $120,000 — more than your original investment. And that is without adding a single dollar during the crash.

Black Monday (October 19, 1987)

Black Monday remains the single largest one-day percentage drop in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average: a jaw-dropping 22.6% decline in a single trading session. The crash was triggered by a combination of program trading (an early form of algorithmic trading), portfolio insurance strategies that backfired spectacularly, and rising interest rates. Investors woke up to a world where a quarter of the stock market’s value had evaporated overnight.

The panic was real. There were serious concerns that major brokerage firms would fail and that the financial system itself was at risk. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan — just two months into his tenure — issued a one-sentence statement the morning after the crash, pledging the Fed’s readiness to provide liquidity. That statement, combined with companies buying back their own stock at bargain prices, turned the tide. Within two years, the market had fully recovered, and the 1990s bull run — one of the greatest in history — was just getting started.

The Dot-Com Bust (2000–2002)

The dot-com bubble was a lesson in speculative excess. Companies with no revenue, no business model, and names ending in “.com” reached absurd valuations. When the bubble burst in March 2000, the Nasdaq Composite fell 78% from its peak — an extraordinary destruction of wealth. The broader S&P 500 fell 49% over a grinding 30-month decline that tested the patience of even the most disciplined investors.

This crash was different from Black Monday because it was slow. There was no single catastrophic day. Instead, it was a relentless drip of bad news, failed companies, and shrinking portfolios. Many investors who held through the first 20% drop finally capitulated at 40% or 45% — right before the bottom. The recovery took longer too, about seven years to reach the previous peak. But investors who bought quality companies during the carnage — names like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft, which were trading at deep discounts — saw life-changing returns over the following decade.

The Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009)

The 2008 financial crisis was the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression. It started with the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, spread to the banking system (Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008), and ultimately infected the global economy. The S&P 500 fell 56.8% from its October 2007 peak to its March 2009 trough. Unemployment peaked at 10%. The word “depression” was being used without irony on major news networks.

And yet. The S&P 500 bottomed on March 9, 2009, at 676.53. From that point, it began a bull run that would last over a decade and see the index rise more than 400% before the COVID crash temporarily interrupted it. Investors who bought near the bottom of the 2008 crash and held for ten years earned returns that would have seemed like fantasy in the depths of the crisis.

The COVID-19 Crash (February–March 2020)

The COVID crash was unique in its speed and its cause. A global pandemic — something most investors had never seriously contemplated — sent the S&P 500 down 33.9% in just 23 trading days, the fastest bear market in history. On March 16, 2020, circuit breakers halted trading after a 12% intraday drop. The world economy was literally shutting down. No one knew how long lockdowns would last, how many people would die, or whether a vaccine was even possible.

The recovery was equally unprecedented. Massive fiscal stimulus (the CARES Act pumped $2.2 trillion into the economy) and emergency Federal Reserve intervention flooded the system with liquidity. The S&P 500 was back to its pre-crash high by August 2020 — just five months after hitting bottom. Investors who bought during the panic were sitting on extraordinary gains within a year.

Key Takeaway: Every major crash in modern history has been followed by a full recovery and new all-time highs. The pain is temporary. The regret of selling at the bottom lasts much longer.

So if the data is this clear — if crashes always recover — why do so many investors still lose money during downturns? The answer has nothing to do with finance and everything to do with psychology.

The Psychology of Panic: Why Most Investors Sell at the Bottom

Here is an uncomfortable truth: the average investor dramatically underperforms the market over time, and the primary reason is behavioral. According to Dalbar’s annual Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB), the average equity fund investor earned 7.13% annually over the 30 years ending in 2023, while the S&P 500 returned 10.15% per year over the same period. That gap — roughly 3 percentage points per year — is almost entirely explained by investors buying high and selling low, driven by emotion rather than logic.

Understanding why this happens is the first step toward making sure it does not happen to you.

Loss Aversion: Losses Hurt Twice as Much as Gains Feel Good

Loss aversion is one of the most well-documented phenomena in behavioral economics, first described by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in their groundbreaking 1979 paper on prospect theory. Their research showed that the psychological pain of losing $1,000 is roughly twice as intense as the pleasure of gaining $1,000. We are literally wired to overreact to losses.

During a market crash, this wiring goes into overdrive. Every day your portfolio drops, your brain registers pain — real, visceral, physical pain. The amygdala, the brain’s fear center, starts flooding your system with cortisol and adrenaline. You are not making a financial decision anymore. You are in fight-or-flight mode, and “flight” means clicking the “sell all” button.

This is why so many investors sell at the bottom. It is not stupidity. It is biology. Your brain is trying to protect you from more pain. The problem is that the action it is pushing you toward — selling — is the one thing that guarantees the pain becomes permanent.

Recency Bias: Assuming Today’s Pain Will Last Forever

Recency bias is the tendency to overweight recent events when predicting the future. When the market has been falling for weeks or months, your brain extrapolates that trend forward indefinitely. “If it dropped 30% in the last month, it will probably drop another 30% next month.” This feels logical in the moment, but it is historically wrong virtually every time.

Recency bias is especially dangerous during prolonged crashes like the dot-com bust or the 2008 financial crisis, where the decline lasted months. By the time you have experienced six, ten, or fifteen months of falling prices, every fiber of your being is convinced that the market will never recover. The historical data showing that it always has feels abstract and irrelevant. The red numbers on your screen feel immediate and real.

Herd Behavior: Everyone Else Is Selling, So It Must Be Right

Humans are social creatures. When everyone around us is doing the same thing, we feel an almost irresistible pull to join them. During a crash, financial media amplifies this effect. Every channel, every website, every podcast is discussing how bad things are. Your coworkers are talking about moving to cash. Your uncle just texted you that he sold everything. The social proof overwhelmingly says: get out.

The irony is brutal. The moment when everyone is selling is almost always the worst time to sell. When there are no more sellers left, there is only one direction for prices to go. Warren Buffett’s famous advice — “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” — is simple to understand and agonizingly difficult to execute, precisely because of herd behavior.

Anchoring: Obsessing Over What Your Portfolio Was Worth

Anchoring is the cognitive bias where you fixate on a specific number — usually the peak value of your portfolio — and measure everything against it. If your portfolio was worth $500,000 at the market’s peak and is now worth $325,000, you feel like you have “lost” $175,000. Psychologically, that $500,000 number becomes your reference point, and anything below it feels like failure.

This is irrational for several reasons. You never had $500,000 in cash — you had stocks that were temporarily priced at $500,000 by a market that was probably overvalued. The paper loss is not a real loss unless you sell. But anchoring makes the loss feel devastatingly real, which feeds into loss aversion, which pushes you to sell, which makes the loss actually real. It is a vicious psychological cycle.

Caution: The biggest risk during a market crash is not the market itself — it is you. Understanding your own psychological biases is not optional. It is the difference between building wealth and destroying it.

Now that we understand what not to do — panic sell — let us talk about what you should do. And it starts with knowing what to buy.

What to Buy During a Crash (And What to Avoid)

Not all stocks are created equal, and this is especially true during a market crash. A crash does not turn bad companies into good ones just because their share price dropped. A 50% decline in a company that was overvalued garbage does not make it a bargain — it makes it slightly less overvalued garbage. The key to crash investing is buying quality companies at a discount, not speculative junk that happens to be cheaper.

What “Quality” Looks Like in a Crash

When markets are falling, you want to own companies that can survive the storm and come out stronger on the other side. Here are the characteristics to look for:

Strong balance sheets. Companies with low debt and plenty of cash on hand can weather economic downturns without being forced to dilute shareholders by issuing new stock at depressed prices. Look for companies with a debt-to-equity ratio below 1.0 and significant cash reserves relative to their operating expenses.

Consistent free cash flow. Revenue can fluctuate during a recession, but companies that consistently generate free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital expenditures) have the financial flexibility to keep paying dividends, buying back shares, and investing in growth even when times are tough.

Competitive moats. Warren Buffett’s concept of an economic moat — a durable competitive advantage that protects a company from rivals — is especially important during crashes. Companies with strong brands, network effects, switching costs, or cost advantages tend to lose less revenue during downturns and recover faster afterward.

Essential products or services. Companies that sell things people cannot live without — food, healthcare, utilities, essential software — are more resilient during recessions than those selling discretionary goods. People stop buying luxury handbags before they stop buying groceries.

Stocks That Recovered Strongest After 2008 and 2020

Let us look at concrete examples. The following table shows some well-known stocks, how much they fell during the 2008 and 2020 crashes, and what happened to investors who had the courage to buy near the bottom.

Stock 2008–09 Drawdown 5-Year Return from 2009 Low 2020 Drawdown 1-Year Return from 2020 Low
Apple (AAPL) -57% +490% -31% +110%
Amazon (AMZN) -64% +680% -26% +76%
Microsoft (MSFT) -46% +230% -27% +65%
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) -68% +290% -38% +95%
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) -44% +180% -26% +55%
NVIDIA (NVDA) -72% +520% -34% +145%

 

The pattern is striking. The companies that fell the most during crashes were often the ones that recovered the most aggressively — provided they were fundamentally strong businesses. NVIDIA dropped 72% during the 2008 crash, which would have been terrifying to live through. But investors who bought at those depressed prices and held for five years saw a 520% return. That is the kind of wealth-building opportunity that only appears when fear is at its maximum.

What to Avoid During a Crash

Just as important as knowing what to buy is knowing what to stay away from during a crash. Not every cheap stock is a bargain.

Highly leveraged companies. Companies carrying massive debt loads are vulnerable to bankruptcy during recessions. When revenue declines, they may not be able to service their debt, leading to restructuring or total wipeout for shareholders. During the 2008 crisis, dozens of overleveraged financial companies went to zero.

Speculative growth stocks with no earnings. Unprofitable companies burning through cash are especially dangerous during downturns. Their access to cheap capital dries up, and many either go bankrupt or have to raise money at extremely dilutive terms. The dot-com bust destroyed hundreds of these companies.

Companies in structurally declining industries. A crash accelerates trends that were already underway. Companies in dying industries — think traditional retail during COVID, or film photography during the smartphone era — often do not recover even when the broader market does.

Penny stocks and “lottery ticket” plays. The temptation during a crash is to buy ultra-cheap stocks in hopes of a massive rebound. This is gambling, not investing. Most penny stocks that crash hard stay crashed. Focus on quality.

The ETF Approach: If You Cannot Pick Stocks

If individual stock selection feels overwhelming, broad-market ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) are an excellent alternative during crashes. By buying an index fund like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) or the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), you are buying the entire market at a discount. You do not need to pick the right stocks — you just need to buy “the market” when it is on sale.

For more targeted exposure, consider sector ETFs in areas that tend to recover strongly: technology (QQQ), healthcare (XLV), or financials (XLF). The advantage of ETFs is instant diversification — even if one or two companies in the index go bankrupt, the overall portfolio survives and recovers.

Tip: During a crash, simplicity beats cleverness. If you are paralyzed by choice, just buy a broad-market index ETF like SPY or VTI. You will participate in the eventual recovery without having to pick individual winners.

The Crash Investing Playbook: A Step-by-Step Strategy

Knowing that crashes are buying opportunities is one thing. Having a systematic plan to actually execute during a crash is something else entirely. Here is a concrete, actionable playbook that you can follow when the next downturn arrives.

Step One: Have Cash Ready Before the Crash

You cannot buy the dip if you have no cash. This is the most common mistake investors make: they are 100% invested at all times, leaving no dry powder for opportunities.

How much cash should you keep on the sidelines? There is no perfect answer, but a reasonable guideline is to keep 5% to 15% of your total portfolio in cash or cash equivalents (like short-term Treasury bills or a high-yield savings account) at all times. This is your “opportunity fund.” It is not earning much during bull markets, and that is fine. Its purpose is not to maximize returns — its purpose is to be available when stocks go on sale.

Some investors, including Warren Buffett, keep significantly more cash than this. Berkshire Hathaway famously sits on tens of billions in cash and short-term Treasuries, waiting for what Buffett calls “fat pitches.” As of late 2025, Berkshire held over $300 billion in cash and equivalents. You do not need to be that extreme, but having some cash available is non-negotiable if you want to take advantage of crashes.

Cash Allocation Pros Cons Best For
5% of portfolio Minimal drag on returns during bull markets Limited firepower during crashes Young investors with steady income
10% of portfolio Good balance of opportunity and performance Moderate drag during strong bull runs Most long-term investors
15–20% of portfolio Significant dry powder; strong position in crashes Underperforms significantly in bull markets Investors near retirement or in overvalued markets

 

Step Two: Build Your Shopping List Before the Crash

This is the single most important piece of preparation you can do, and almost nobody does it. Before the market crashes, sit down and make a list of 10 to 20 companies or ETFs that you would love to own at the right price. For each one, write down the price at which it would become a compelling buy.

For example, your list might look something like this:

“If Apple falls below $150, I will buy X shares.”
“If the S&P 500 drops 30%, I will invest $10,000 in VTI.”
“If Microsoft’s P/E ratio falls below 25, I will start building a position.”

The reason this list must be created before the crash is that you will not be able to think clearly during the crash. When the market is down 30% and the news is apocalyptic, your brain will be in panic mode. You will not be doing thoughtful fundamental analysis. You will be refreshing your brokerage account every five minutes and fighting the urge to sell everything.

Having a pre-written shopping list takes the thinking out of the equation. The prices on your list have already triggered? Execute the plan. No thinking required. No emotional decision-making. Just follow the list.

Step Three: Deploy Capital in Tranches, Not All at Once

This is where most crash investors go wrong. They see the market down 20% and put all their cash to work immediately, only to watch the market fall another 15%. Then they are out of cash, sitting on losses, and feeling terrible.

The solution is to deploy your crash capital in tranches — predetermined portions spread over time or price levels. Here is one approach that has served many investors well:

Tranche 1 (25% of your crash fund): Deploy when the market is down 15–20% from its peak. This is early in the crash, and it may not feel like a great entry point. That is fine. You are not trying to catch the exact bottom.

Tranche 2 (25% of your crash fund): Deploy when the market is down 25–30%. Things are getting serious now. Headlines are scary. This is when you start feeling uncomfortable, which is a good sign.

Tranche 3 (25% of your crash fund): Deploy when the market is down 35–40%. This is peak fear territory. People are talking about depressions and systemic collapse. Your hands will be shaking when you click the buy button. Do it anyway.

Tranche 4 (25% of your crash fund): Deploy when the market is down 40%+ or when you see signs of stabilization. If the market never gets this low, that is fine — you still deployed 75% of your crash fund at excellent prices.

Key Takeaway: The tranche approach protects you from the single biggest risk in crash investing: going all-in too early. By spreading your purchases across multiple price points, you improve your average entry price and reduce the emotional pressure of any single buy decision.

Step Four: Continue Dollar-Cost Averaging Through the Crash

In addition to your tranche-based crash fund, you should continue your regular investment contributions throughout the downturn. If you have been investing $500 per month into your retirement account, do not stop. If anything, increase it.

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) — investing a fixed dollar amount at regular intervals regardless of the market’s price — is one of the most powerful tools available to long-term investors, and it works especially well during crashes. Here is why:

When prices are high, your $500 buys fewer shares. When prices are low, your $500 buys more shares. Over time, this mathematically lowers your average cost per share. During a crash, DCA becomes supercharged because you are buying dramatically more shares with each contribution.

Consider this example: suppose you invest $500 per month in an S&P 500 ETF. At a price of $450, you buy 1.11 shares. When the market crashes and the price drops to $300, that same $500 buys 1.67 shares — 50% more shares for the same dollar amount. When the market recovers to $450, those extra shares you bought at $300 have generated a 50% return. DCA essentially forces you to buy more when prices are low, which is exactly the opposite of what your emotions want you to do.

The critical part is that you must not stop contributing during the crash. Many investors suspend their regular contributions during downturns, thinking they will “wait for things to settle down.” This is the worst possible response. The contributions you make during the crash period will likely be the most profitable investments of your entire career.

Step Five: Stop Trying to Time the Exact Bottom

Let me be blunt: you will not catch the exact bottom. Nobody does. Not Warren Buffett, not Ray Dalio, not the most sophisticated quantitative hedge funds on Wall Street. The exact bottom of a market crash is only identifiable in retrospect, never in real time.

And here is the thing — it does not matter. You do not need to buy at the exact bottom to make excellent returns. If the S&P 500 falls 40% and you buy when it is down 30%, you have still bought at an incredible price. If it falls 40% and you buy when it is down 25%, you have still bought at a great price. The difference between catching the exact bottom and buying within 10% of the bottom is negligible over a 10-year time horizon.

What destroys returns is not buying at all because you were waiting for a lower price that never came. The market does not send a notification saying “This is the bottom. Buy now.” More often, the bottom only becomes apparent after prices have already risen 20% or 30% from the low. Investors who waited for confirmation missed the sharpest part of the recovery.

Peter Lynch put it best: “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The same principle applies to timing the bottom of a crash. Approximate timing with consistent execution beats perfect timing that never happens.

Tip: Instead of trying to time the bottom, focus on buying at prices that will look great in five years. If you are buying quality companies at 30–40% discounts to their fair value, the exact entry point matters far less than having the discipline to act.

Emotional Preparation: Building Your Crash-Ready Mindset Before It Happens

We have covered the financial mechanics of crash investing — what to buy, when to buy, how much to buy. But none of that matters if you are not emotionally prepared. The most meticulously crafted crash-investing plan is worthless if you abandon it at the first sign of trouble. And trust me, every plan looks easy in the calm of a bull market and feels impossible in the terror of a crash.

Here is how to build the emotional armor you will need.

Accept That Unrealized Losses Are Part of the Process

If you deploy capital during a crash, your positions will almost certainly show unrealized losses initially. You might buy when the market is down 25%, and it falls another 15%. Your crash purchases are now in the red. This is normal. This is expected. This does not mean you made a mistake.

Before the crash happens, mentally rehearse this scenario. Tell yourself: “I will buy stocks during the next crash. They will probably go down further after I buy them. I will feel like an idiot. I will hold anyway.” Visualize looking at your portfolio showing a 15% loss on your crash purchases. Feel the discomfort in advance. Get used to it. When it happens in reality, it will hurt less because you expected it.

Professional investors understand that short-term unrealized losses are the price of admission for long-term gains. The best entry points in history all involved buying into ongoing declines. Nobody rings a bell at the bottom.

Limit Your News Consumption

During a crash, financial news is designed to do one thing: keep you watching. Fear drives engagement. Engagement drives ad revenue. The incentives of financial media are fundamentally misaligned with your investing goals. Every breathless headline, every “BREAKING NEWS” banner, every expert predicting further doom — it is all engineered to keep you glued to the screen and emotionally reactive.

Set specific boundaries before the crash happens. Decide in advance that you will check your portfolio no more than once per week during a downturn. Unfollow or mute financial accounts on social media that traffic in fear. Cancel your cable news subscription if you have to. The less crash-related content you consume, the easier it will be to stick to your plan.

This does not mean you should be uninformed. Check the major indices once a week, review your shopping list, and execute your tranche plan. But do not marinate in doom content for hours every day. It will erode your resolve and push you toward emotional decisions.

Automate Whatever You Can

Emotions are the enemy of good crash investing, and the best defense against emotions is automation. Most brokerage platforms allow you to set up automatic recurring investments. Set them up now, before the crash. If you are dollar-cost averaging $500 per month into VTI, automate that contribution so it happens without you needing to click a button.

You can also use limit orders to partially automate your tranche strategy. Set buy orders at your predetermined price levels: “Buy 50 shares of Apple if it reaches $150.” “Buy 100 shares of VTI if it reaches $180.” These orders will execute automatically if the price hits your target, removing you from the decision entirely. The stock hits your price, the order fills, and you do not need to be staring at a screen with sweaty palms trying to click “buy.”

Build Your Perspective Framework

Create a document — a personal investment memo — that you write to yourself during calm times. In it, describe your long-term goals, your investing timeline, and why you believe in the long-term growth of the stock market. Include the historical data we discussed earlier: the table of crashes and recoveries, the Dalbar data on investor underperformance, the specific stocks that rewarded patient crash buyers.

Then, include a section that directly addresses your future panicking self. Write something like: “If you are reading this, the market is crashing and you are scared. That is normal. Do not sell. Look at the historical data below. Execute the plan. You will thank yourself in five years.”

This might sound cheesy, but it works. Behavioral finance researchers have found that pre-commitment strategies — decisions made in advance of emotional situations — significantly improve outcomes. Your calm, rational present self is much better at making good decisions than your panicked future self will be. Give your future self clear instructions to follow.

Know Your Real Risk Tolerance (Not the One on the Questionnaire)

Every brokerage account comes with a risk tolerance questionnaire that asks you hypothetical questions like “If your portfolio lost 20%, what would you do?” Almost everyone says they would hold or buy more. Almost nobody actually does when it happens.

Your real risk tolerance is not what you say you would do in a hypothetical scenario. It is what you actually do when your portfolio is down $50,000 and your spouse is asking you if you should sell. If you have never lived through a significant crash, you genuinely do not know your real risk tolerance. This is dangerous because it means you might be taking more risk than you can emotionally handle.

A good rule of thumb: if a 40% portfolio decline would cause you to lose sleep, reduce your equity allocation. You are better off with a conservative portfolio that you can hold through a crash than an aggressive portfolio that you panic-sell at the bottom. The best portfolio is the one you can stick with.

Caution: Your risk tolerance during a bull market is not your actual risk tolerance. If you have never experienced a real crash, err on the side of caution with your allocation. It is better to leave some returns on the table than to panic-sell at the worst possible time.

Conclusion: The Courage to Buy When Everyone Is Selling

Market crashes are inevitable. If you invest in stocks for any meaningful length of time, you will experience at least two or three significant downturns. The S&P 500 has had a drawdown of 20% or more roughly every six years since 1928. This is not a question of if but when.

The difference between investors who build wealth through crashes and those who destroy it comes down to three things: preparation, perspective, and process.

Preparation means having cash available before the crash, building your shopping list of quality companies at attractive prices, and setting up your tranche deployment strategy in advance. It means writing your personal investment memo and automating your contributions. It means doing the work now, in calm markets, so that future-you has a clear roadmap to follow when panic strikes.

Perspective means internalizing the historical reality that every crash has been followed by a recovery. It means understanding that the talking heads on TV do not have any special insight into when the bottom will arrive. It means recognizing your own psychological biases — loss aversion, recency bias, herd behavior, anchoring — and refusing to let them dictate your actions. It means accepting that short-term losses on crash purchases are the normal, expected cost of long-term wealth creation.

Process means deploying capital systematically through tranches, not all at once. It means continuing to dollar-cost average through the downturn. It means following your shopping list rather than making impulsive decisions. It means not trying to time the exact bottom — because that is a fool’s errand — and instead focusing on buying quality assets at prices that will look spectacular in five years.

Sir John Templeton, one of the greatest investors of the 20th century, said that “the time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy.” He practiced what he preached, aggressively buying stocks during the depths of the Great Depression and making a fortune in the process. Templeton understood something that most investors never fully internalize: the very emotions that make crashes so painful are the same forces that create such extraordinary opportunities. Fear creates forced sellers. Forced sellers create bargain prices. Bargain prices create generational wealth for those with the courage to act.

The next crash is coming. You do not know when — nobody does. But now you have a plan. Build your cash reserves. Write your shopping list. Set your tranche levels. Automate your contributions. Write yourself a letter for when the panic hits. And when the day comes and the market is falling and everyone around you is selling and the headlines are screaming that this time is different — remember that it never is. Open your playbook, execute your plan, and turn fear into the best investment opportunity of your lifetime.

References

  • Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
  • Dalbar Inc. (2024). “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB).” Annual Report.
  • S&P Dow Jones Indices. Historical data on S&P 500 drawdowns and recoveries. spglobal.com/spdji
  • Federal Reserve History. “Stock Market Crash of 1987.” federalreservehistory.org
  • Buffett, W. (2008). “Buy American. I Am.” The New York Times, October 16, 2008.
  • Lynch, P. (1989). One Up on Wall Street. Simon & Schuster.
  • Templeton, J.M. & Phillips, T. (2008). Investing the Templeton Way. McGraw-Hill.
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Historical unemployment data. bls.gov
  • Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (2025). Annual Report and SEC Filings. berkshirehathaway.com

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